TDF. Random Thoughts

Last Years TDF Top Twenty
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 91.00.26
2 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 0.23
3 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 0.31
4 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC 7.08
5 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 8.17
6 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 11.37
7 Kim Kirchen (Lux) T-Mobile Team 12.18
8 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 12.25
9 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 14.14
10 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 14.25

So no Contador and Leipheimer leaves Cadel with a big cushion-six and half minutes to his next rival

2 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 0.23
4 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC
5 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
6 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 11.37
7 Kim Kirchen (Lux) T-Mobile Team 12.18
8 Yaroslav Popovych (now rides for Evans 12.25
9 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 14.14
10 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 14.25
11 Mauricio Soler (Col) Barloworld
13 David Arroyo Duran (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne
17 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC

Soler, Arroyo, and Schleck move up when you take out the rider who can't contest this year.

Other interesting names from last year's top 30

19 Tadej Valjavec (Slo) Lampre - Fondital now ag2r or is it agributel?
25 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team CSC now Slipstream
32 Kanstantin Siutsou (Blr) Barloworld -now High Road


Where do you factor in Cunego?

It's hard to feel out, but seems unlikely that Evans,Sastre,Valverde won't be on the podium. Kirchen is right up their if his form lasts. Cunego? Can he time trial well enough to defend himself?
The closet guy to the podium last year was six and a half minutes away. Will gaps like that happen this year or will it be closer like the Giro? Seems things will be much tighter this year.
The first three stages will most likely end in sprints but are lumpy enough to spring a breakaway. ITT on stage 4 will possibly impose some order, but anyone could be in Yellow those first three days which will make it super hectic and hopefully not with any race defining crashes. Stage six should have some breakaway battling to establish a KOM lead. Then just before Bastille day on stage nine,we get some high mountains. Followed by some real fireworks inducing mountains on the 14th! Race should be splitting up here pretty nicely. Cunego will have to strike hard here to establish a cushion against the better time trialists.
Cannot Wait.